>600,000 deaths in Iraq?
The new study published in the Lancet by the same group that published the original study on Iraqi civilian deaths should be taken very seriously. Why? Because it comes out of a place with very high credibility (Johns Hopkins), that happens to be in the top 4-5 Universities in the country (at least the school of Public Health). It is also published in a highly credible medical Journal (The Lancet). Undoubtedl,y it underwent very rigorous review to make it there, especially after the shock that the first paper had created, and the issues raised then.
That study estimates that "as of July, 2006, there have been 654,965 (392,979–942,636) excess Iraqi deaths as a consequence of the war, which corresponds to 2·5% of the population in the study area".
Now, I am not an epidemiology expert, but I respect Johns Hopkins and the Lancet and I have to accept the conclusions of the study. Even if the lowest margin (392,979 deaths) is closer to reality, this study is shocking. Think about it...392,979 deaths, at the very least. For what?
The most remarkable data of that study are in Table 3, where it is clearly shown that the pre-invasion crude mortality rate was 5.5 deaths per 1000 people per year (with 95% confidence intervals, 4.3–7.1). That number kept rising 7.5 in 3/03 to 3/04, 10.9 in 5/04 to 5/05 and 19.8 in 6/05 to 6/06. Astonishing! It is not just the net number of deaths that is shocking, it is also the pattern of increasing deaths that it is now at its worst point ever. During the Saddam regime the numbers of deaths daily were almost 1/3 of what they are now! These numbers clearly show that things are rapidly getting worse in Iraq. The removal of the fascist regime of Saddam not only did not help the Iraqis, but in fact made things much worse for them. Mush more people die now daily than when the horrible dictator Saddam was in power.
Of course the radical right and the republican party will attempt to "disqualify" this study. The same way they attack and try disqualify science at multiple levels. But the truth is that Lanset is a very serious journal with serious reviewers, and they certainly dont like to accept in their Journal "flawed" data. Lancet is not Fox News or the National Enquirer.
There is something called accountability. Who should be held accountable for such massive loss of life? Maybe someone should ask George Bush, Dick Cheney or Condoleezza Rice this question. Maybe they have an answer.
That study estimates that "as of July, 2006, there have been 654,965 (392,979–942,636) excess Iraqi deaths as a consequence of the war, which corresponds to 2·5% of the population in the study area".
Now, I am not an epidemiology expert, but I respect Johns Hopkins and the Lancet and I have to accept the conclusions of the study. Even if the lowest margin (392,979 deaths) is closer to reality, this study is shocking. Think about it...392,979 deaths, at the very least. For what?
The most remarkable data of that study are in Table 3, where it is clearly shown that the pre-invasion crude mortality rate was 5.5 deaths per 1000 people per year (with 95% confidence intervals, 4.3–7.1). That number kept rising 7.5 in 3/03 to 3/04, 10.9 in 5/04 to 5/05 and 19.8 in 6/05 to 6/06. Astonishing! It is not just the net number of deaths that is shocking, it is also the pattern of increasing deaths that it is now at its worst point ever. During the Saddam regime the numbers of deaths daily were almost 1/3 of what they are now! These numbers clearly show that things are rapidly getting worse in Iraq. The removal of the fascist regime of Saddam not only did not help the Iraqis, but in fact made things much worse for them. Mush more people die now daily than when the horrible dictator Saddam was in power.
Of course the radical right and the republican party will attempt to "disqualify" this study. The same way they attack and try disqualify science at multiple levels. But the truth is that Lanset is a very serious journal with serious reviewers, and they certainly dont like to accept in their Journal "flawed" data. Lancet is not Fox News or the National Enquirer.
There is something called accountability. Who should be held accountable for such massive loss of life? Maybe someone should ask George Bush, Dick Cheney or Condoleezza Rice this question. Maybe they have an answer.
posted by Nevum @ 8:24 PM
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