Why Ned Lamont will win (yes win) the Connecticut senate race

After the depressing (and likely misleading) Qunnipiac poll, there is a new poll from ARG that shows that things are not so bad afterall.

For starters, in this poll Lieberman's lead is 5 points less than the Quinnipiac poll. And this poll likely has not been influenced by the last 2 debates (as it was not the Quinnipiac poll, no matter what Schwartz says). Most importantly, this poll has included proportionally more republicans (28%) than the previous ARG poll (24%) that had shown essentially a tied race (Lieberman 44% Lamont 42%). This is important as Connecticut is a very blue state, and in reality, not more than a quarter of the actual voters will be republicans.

Dont take me wrong. Lieberman has slightly improved his numbers, while Lamont has not. In fact, comparing the polls, it appears that Schlesinger has taken away some republican votes from Lamont. But things are not so bad. The race is still open and either Lamont or Lieberman can win.

I still believe that Lamont will win at the end, after a very tight race. Here are the reasons for which I believe that:

1. Lamont's voters are commited and will vote, while Lieberman has very soft support.

2. Lamont has more money to spend in the last 2 weeks and he is already intensifying his TV ads.

3. Lamont has a better ground game.

4. The new TV ad with Dodd will have a major impact in Connecticut. Dodd is very much liked and respected there and when voters realize that Dodd has switched his support to Lamont, they will take a closer look.

5. Lieberman's position in the ballot will cost him at least 5, if not more, points.

6. Lets not forget that most people who say that they will vote for Lieberman in the polls, they do so simply because of name recognition. Some of the democrats who say they will vote for him (34%), are "low information voters" and probably think that he is still the democratic candidate. When they look at the ballot and realize that another democrat is the candidate, many of them will end up not voting for Lieberman.

7. Finally, many republicans may skip voting this year with the disastrous situation of their party. That means less votes for Lieberman.

In summary, Lamont can still win. This race is open, and after the 2nd debate Lamont has been gaining momentum. We should not let biased polls take away the momentum from him. Lamont deserves to win because he will be a much better senator than Lieberman. There is a good chance that he will.